According to the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, wind and solar energy will generate 16% of the nation’s total power in 2023, up from 14% in 2021 and 8% in 2018. (EIA). In 2023 and 2024, less electricity is anticipated to be produced by coal- and natural gas-fired power plants due to increased renewable energy production.
According to the EIA’s prediction, coal’s portion in US power generation will decrease from 20% in 2022 to 18% in 2023, while natural gas’s share will stay the same at 39%.
The fast growth of renewable energy resources, particularly solar and wind, during the past few years has been one of the most significant changes in the mix of US electricity generation. At the end of 2022, the US electric power sector had 74 GW (gigawatts) of solar photovoltaic capacity operational, over three times the total at the end of 2017. According to the EIA, the capacity of US wind power has increased by more than 60% since 2017 to roughly 143 GW.
By the end of 2024, solar capacity will increase by 63 GW (84%) according to projected additions reported to the EIA, consistent with its lowering construction costs and valuable tax benefits. The EIA anticipates that this expansion in solar capacity would cause the share of solar energy to climb from 3% of US generation last year to 5% in 2023 and 6% in 2024. With roughly 12 GW of additional capacity anticipated over the next two years, planned growth in wind power is a little slower this year than in prior years.
The forecasted wind power share averages 11% in 2023, roughly steady from the previous year, and rises to 12% in 2024.
Texas and California, where natural gas has traditionally been the primary source of electricity, have seen the most significant increases in solar capacity. Some natural gas generation is replaced by a rising share of renewable energy production, which falls from 39% in 2022 to 38% this year and to 37% in 2024, according to the EIA’s prediction of lower overall electricity consumption this year.
Due to decreased natural gas fuel prices, coal will be a less competitive source of electricity supply this year, and EIA anticipates a two-point drop in coal generation share to 18%—the predicted reduction in coal generation to 17% in 2024.
